For years, defense technology was the awkward cousin of venture capital—too political, too regulated, too slow. That era is over.

In March alone, public markets delivered a blunt message: investors want defense exposure, and they want it now—profitability optional.

Consider Swarmer, a Ukrainian drone‑autonomy software company founded in 2023. On March 17, it listed on Nasdaq and closed its first trading day up more than 500%, one of the most explosive IPO debuts in recent memory. At peak, the stock briefly implied a valuation hundreds of times its annual revenue—despite declining sales in 2025 and rapidly expanding losses.

By any traditional metric, Swarmer should have struggled. Instead, it became a symbol of something far larger: a market willing to price battlefield relevance above balance sheets. Investors were not buying revenue growth; they were buying strategic optionality in a world reshaped by autonomous warfare.

Swarmer was not alone.

The same week, Merlin, a U.S. company developing autonomous flight systems for military and civil aircraft, went public via a SPAC merger. The deal raised roughly $200 million, valuing the company at close to $1 billion. Like Swarmer, Merlin is early in its revenue curve. Like Swarmer, that barely mattered.

Together, these IPOs reveal where conviction now lives in capital markets. Defense technology—especially autonomy, drones, and AI‑enabled systems—has become a macro trade. Investors are not underwriting quarterly performance; they are underwriting a decade of geopolitical demand.

Europe is seeing the same dynamic, at even larger scale.

In January, CSG, the Czech defense conglomerate specializing in armored vehicles and munitions, pulled off what is now the largest defense IPO ever recorded. The company raised approximately €3.8 billion on Euronext Amsterdam, with shares closing about 31% above the offer price, valuing the group at roughly €25–30 billion depending on trading.

This is extraordinary in a European market where software IPOs are effectively extinct. Defense is the exception.

Over the past 18 months, the pattern is unmistakable:
TKMS listed at multi‑billion‑euro scale.
Renk’s shares surged over 200% post‑IPO.
Exosens doubled.
Rheinmetall became one of the best‑performing stocks globally, up roughly 4x in five years.

More is coming.

KNDS, the Franco‑German manufacturer of Leopard 2 tanks, is expected to go public this year at around €20 billion, backed by a massive order backlog. Doncasters, a UK precision engineering firm with deep defense exposure, is preparing an IPO reportedly targeting $4 billion. Quantum Systems, Germany’s autonomous drone champion, is widely rumored as the next European defense tech listing to watch.

The appetite is not limited to public markets. Anduril secondary shares now trade at valuations approaching $90 billion. Quietly, Europe and Israel have minted multiple new defense unicorns in recent months—often without press releases, because demand already exceeds supply.

Perhaps the most important signal, however, comes from where these companies choose to list.

Defense founders have long hesitated between U.S. and European markets, balancing access to capital against sovereignty and regulation. Swarmer changed the calculus. A company with no U.S. revenue, founded and operating outside the United States, successfully listed on Nasdaq.

The gravitational pull of U.S. capital markets remains overwhelming.

Defense tech exits are no longer hypothetical. They are happening—fast, loud, and at valuations few would have predicted just two years ago.

The only open question now is not if more will follow—but how many.

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